Climate Change and Agriculture:
Food Security and the Future


Projected changes in climate even if we were to stop emitting greenhouse gases today: continued warming for 50–100 years.

Global climate change is occurring. Melting glaciers and ice sheets, earlier springs and drier summers, changing seasons and regional weather patterns are being reported around the world. There is a growing concern about these impacts on agri-culture and the implications of food security for this generation and those to come. Scientists can say with certainty that agri-cultural regions will experience these changes over time, but it is a challenge to be more specific. The evidence suggests that agricultural production in developing countries will be more vulnerable, and long-term effects on agriculture can only be negative. As an example of climate changes and subsequent impacts on agriculture, this is what is happening in the American Midwest:

Climate Projection: Farmers in the Midwest are already suffering from wetter spring and fall weather; also, the intensity of rainstorms has increased. These trends will continue and likely strengthen. Later in the century, the region’s climate will grow considerably warmer and during the summer probably drier.

Precipitation: The Midwest can expect little annual average change, but increase in spring and winter precipitation and decrease in summer months. By the end of the century, increased summer temperature, evaporation, runoff from intense rainfall events, and less summer rainfall will result in increased drought frequency.

Temperatures: Average annual air and soil temps are increasing while winters are getting shorter. By the end of the century, maximum daily temperatures could rise by 5-12º F in the winter and 5-20º F in summer. Growing season could be 4-9 weeks longer by the end of the century. Number of days exceeding 90º F could increase 4-6 weeks.

IMPACTS ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

Climate change will not imperil the ability of the U.S. to feed its population and to export foodstuffs. Productivity of many major crops will likely increase: cotton, corn for grain and silage, soybeans, sorghum, barley, sugar beets, citrus fruits, and pasture. Climate change favors the northern areas of the U.S., with the Midwest, West and Pacific Northwest exhibiting large gains in yield.

Throughout the world in general, food crop production will increase slightly at higher latitudes (e.g., European nations, Russia, northern China, the United States, Canada), but then decrease towards the end of this century. Across the tropics (African nations, Brazil, southern India, Southeast Asian nations), crop production is predicted to decline, even under moderate climate change.


"As Catholics, we have a unique opportunity and responsibility to make a difference in addressing the potential impacts of global climate change, particularly on those least able to bear its burdens."

From a letter to Congress in 2006, signed by Most Rev. Thomas G. Wenski, Chairman, International Policy Committee, USCCB & Most Rev. Nicholas DiMarzio, Chairman, Domestic Policy Committee, USCCB.


ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Socially and politically, nations must establish systems whereby potential surprises can be identified in advance and communicated to the public, thus building the resilience needed to anticipate and mitigate harmful climate change effects. The effective use of seasonal forecasts and the associated development of sustainable adaptive strategies may help build resilience to climate change. However, under changing climate conditions, past experience of farmers will be less reliable predictors of what is to come. Switching crop varieties may not assure equal food production or nutritional quality or profits for farmers.

A key strategic action is to reduce vulnerabilities in our current industrialized food system and create flexibilities at local and regional levels. This means encouraging diversification of agriculture and technological systems so that regions and localities have direct access to food production. At the same time, federal policies will need to improve the basis for crop disaster payments and plan for regional shortages.

LIMITS TO ADAPTATION

We must not forget that countries with the lowest income may be the hardest hit and least able to adapt. The ability of any country to avoid the drawbacks as climate changes will depend on the availability of adequate resources. For subsistence farmers, and more so for people who now face a shortage of food, lower yields may result not only in measurable economic losses, but also in malnutrition and famine.


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This article was published in the Spring 2007 issue of Catholic Rural Life©. No portion of this article may be reproduced without written permission from The National Catholic Rural Life Conference. To purchase the Spring 2006 issue of Catholic Rural Life, please contact The National Catholic Rural Life Conference office at 4625 Beaver Avenue, Des Moines, Iowa 50310-2199, call (515) 270-2634, or e-mail ncrlc@mchsi.com. The cost is $2.50 an issue plus postage and handling.